Operational Unit
Epidemiological Forecasting & Mathematical Biological Modeling Unit
Physics & Computational Mathematics
Unit Mandate
Mission & Operational Scope
Develops mathematical models for epidemic forecasting, biological system dynamics, and population health prediction, providing the quantitative foundation for the Foundation's pandemic preparedness and public health intervention programs.
Doctrine
WHO Epidemic Modeling Standards · CDC Influenza Forecasting Challenge Guidelines
Core Capabilities
Operational Capabilities
Deterministic and stochastic epidemic model development and calibration
Bayesian inference for epidemic parameter estimation from surveillance data
Spatial epidemic spread modeling and geographic risk mapping
Intervention effectiveness modeling for policy evaluation
Real-time epidemic nowcasting and short-term forecasting
Multi-pathogen and co-infection dynamics modeling
Division VI
Physics & Computational Mathematics