Existential Risk & Global Catastrophic Threat Diplomatic Coalition
An operational unit of the Global Initiatives Division, developing international frameworks to identify, assess, and mitigate civilization-scale risks — from asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions to engineered pandemics and runaway artificial intelligence — that transcend national borders and demand coordinated global response before they become irreversible.
Mission & Operational Scope
Safeguarding Civilization Against Low-Probability, High-Consequence Threats
Existential and global catastrophic risks occupy a unique position in international affairs: they are the threats most likely to be systematically underinvested in precisely because their probability in any given year is low, their consequences are difficult to imagine, and the political incentives to address them are weak. Yet the expected harm from a civilization-ending or civilization-crippling event — even at low annual probability — dwarfs virtually every other policy priority when measured across the full scope of human potential.
This coalition develops the international governance frameworks, early warning systems, and coordinated response protocols needed to address existential and global catastrophic risks — building the institutional infrastructure that allows humanity to take these threats seriously before they materialize.
Governing Doctrine
Frameworks & Standards
- Sendai FrameworkUN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction — international framework for reducing disaster risk applicable to catastrophic and existential threat preparedness
- UNOOSAUN Office for Outer Space Affairs — international coordination body for near-Earth object detection, planetary defense, and asteroid impact response planning
- Biological Weapons ConventionBWC — international treaty prohibiting development and stockpiling of biological weapons, foundational to engineered pandemic risk governance
- IPCC / IPBESIntergovernmental science-policy bodies providing the authoritative risk assessments that underpin existential threat governance frameworks
Operational Capabilities
Six Core Functions
01
Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment
Develop international frameworks for systematic global catastrophic risk assessment — establishing the methodologies, data-sharing protocols, and expert coordination mechanisms that allow the international community to identify and prioritize civilization-scale threats before they become acute.
02
Planetary Defense Coordination
Facilitate international coordination for planetary defense against near-Earth objects — developing the detection networks, deflection mission frameworks, and impact response protocols that protect Earth from asteroid and comet impacts through coordinated international action.
03
Engineered Pandemic Governance
Develop international governance frameworks for engineered pandemic risk — establishing the biosafety standards, dual-use research oversight mechanisms, and international monitoring systems that reduce the risk of catastrophic biological events from both deliberate and accidental sources.
04
AI Catastrophic Risk Diplomacy
Develop international diplomatic frameworks for artificial intelligence catastrophic risk — building the governance structures, safety standards, and international coordination mechanisms needed to ensure that transformative AI development proceeds in ways that preserve human agency and civilization stability.
05
Nuclear Winter Prevention
Advocate for and develop international frameworks to prevent nuclear winter scenarios — addressing the existential risk posed by large-scale nuclear exchange through arms reduction treaties, no-first-use commitments, and crisis communication protocols that reduce the probability of civilization-ending nuclear conflict.
06
Long-Term Civilizational Resilience
Develop international frameworks for long-term civilizational resilience — establishing the seed banks, knowledge preservation systems, and distributed governance structures that ensure humanity can recover from catastrophic events and maintain the capacity for continued flourishing.